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To loan or not to loan — Real Madrid and the Arda Guler conundrum
Arda Guler finds himself in a precarious position at Real Madrid, stirring up concerns among the club’s insiders.
While some recognize his undeniable talent and advocate for more opportunities, others face the stark reality of a crowded midfield roster.
Given the current lineup saturation, there seems to be little room for him to secure a spot in the starting XI, especially with crucial matches on the horizon.
Since joining from Fenerbahce, Guler’s appearances have been scarce, totalling just seven games across all competitions, with a lone goal to his name.
His only start came in a Copa del Rey match against Arandina, a fixture of minimal significance, and he couldn’t even see it through to the end.
These circumstances naturally prompt speculation about his future with the club. Eleven looking ahead to the next season, it appears increasingly unlikely that he will find regular playing time in the first-team setup.
The dilemma raises questions about whether staying at Real Madrid will truly serve his career aspirations, considering the limited opportunities available, or should the 19-year-old explore more avenues that are already presented to him.
Interest in Guler is plenty
It is no secret that Guler’s situation epitomizes the struggle many talented players face in top-tier clubs—caught between the desire for more playing time and the harsh realities of squad depth.
At present, Guler happens to have several opportunities at his disposal. Earlier, we reported Sevilla’s interest and even before that, Real Sociedad happened to have shown willingness for his acquisition.
Interestingly, even Outside of Spain – Germany to be precise – Guler is reportedly wanted by Bayern Munich.
Loan, keep or sell?
At present, Guler is working at his optimal level to finish the season on a high. For that, he has gained considerable amount of muscle mass, gaining almost eight kilos.
Despite his dedication, though, Real Madrid’s squad remain formidable, particularly in midfield. This is because Toni Kroos has agreed to prolong his contract, while Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga, and Jude Bellingham are pivotal figures.
Even with Federico Valverde and Brahim Diaz offering depth, there is little room for Guler, even if Luka Modric exits. All this leaves no room for him to break through, making a loan essential.
There were murmurs that Madrid might opt for a two-year loan for Guler, akin to Brahim’s situation. However, given Guler’s promising display and the club’s stance, this seems improbable.
If Madrid truly value his future, they should loan him to another La Liga club for a season to aid his adaptation. Subsequently, the decision will rest with the club.
In essence, Madrid’s stacked midfield and attack leaves Guler with few opportunities for immediate integration. A loan seems inevitable to provide him with crucial playing time.
While there is speculation about the loan duration, Madrid’s preference for his development indicates a temporary move. Ultimately, his fate lies in Madrid’s hands, with a loan to a La Liga side offering the best pathway for his growth.
Real Madrid’s season, under the returning Jose Mourinho, has not started as expected at the club.
In terms of results, eight matches have produced six wins one draw and two defeats in all competitions. Both losses have come in La Liga (five wins), leading to the Merengues occupying the fourth place in the table.
Meanwhile, arch-rivals Barcelona have maintained a perfect winning record riding on their relentless goalscoring form, opening up a six-point lead at the table.
Mourinho is using the international break to analyse what has gone wrong and what can be improved. And, several metrics and statistics show that Real Madrid has significant room for improvement.
As highlighted a few days ago, Real Madrid are the team that covers the fewest kilometres per match in La Liga on average, at 96.5, almost ten fewer than Barcelona’s 104.5. Los Blancos are also second-bottom for high-intensity runs per match, with 394.
Possession and defensive numbers
There are further figures suggesting that Real Madrid could be doing more in terms of off-the-ball efforts and defensively.
Real Madrid also happen to be the team that commits the fewest fouls, with 59, fewer than half Espanyol’s 120, yet it is also the team that has been fouled the most in La Liga, with 97.
In terms of recoveries, the Spanish capital giants rank 16th with 302, 38 fewer than Barcelona, while they are also near the bottom for interceptions, ranking 17th.
One argument could be that these figures indicate that Real Madrid are dominating games more often than they are dominated, leaving fewer opportunities to be aggressive without the ball.
However, the numbers do not particularly support that theory either. Real Madrid average 52.3% possession, only slightly more than half.
That is a long way behind Barcelona’s 68.7% and also below Villarreal at 61.4%. Even Atlético Madrid (59.1%) and Real Betis (53.6%) outdo the Merengues.
That possession also allows Barcelona to protect themselves more effectively. The Catalans have conceded just 51 shots, including 22 on target, while Real Madrid have faced 89 shots, with 31 on target.
Finishing not up to the mark either
Real Madrid can improve defensively, but the attacking numbers also reveal significant room for growth.
The biggest issue is finishing. The Merengues have scored 18 goals, 13 fewer than Barcelona’s 31.
That is despite the two teams having taken a similar number of shots: Barça have attempted 150, compared with 131 for Los Blancos. The difference is even smaller when looking at shots on target, with 58 for Barcelona and 53 for Madrid.
Barcelona’s players score once every 1.8 shots on target, while Real Madrid stars needs almost three.
The contrast is particularly clear when comparing the leading scorers for both teams, Raphinha and Kylian Mbappe.
The Brazilian has scored 12 goals from just 25 total shots and 16 shots on target. Real Madrid’s No. 10, meanwhile, has scored seven goals from 41 attempts and 22 shots on target.
The numbers clearly show that Real Madrid have a lot of work to do, both in defence and in attack, if they are to close the gap to the top.
Source: AS
